EUA DEC26 weakened through last week, failing to hold above €87/t on Monday and closing Friday at €84.42/t, down 2.72% on the week. A Thursday rebound toward €86 faded, and Friday fell to a new low of €84.13. Monday’s settlement of €83.87/t extends the slide, landing just below the €84.00-84.30 support area. The mid-September push toward €88 (settling at €87.99 on 14 September) has faded, and price is back near early-September levels.
Volumes held at 20-23 million allowances per session, so the decline did not occur in illiquid conditions. A sustained break below €84 could open €82.50-83.00, while a constructive bias would need a recovery above €86, with €87-87.50 as resistance. Whether this is consolidation or a deeper correction hinges on the €84 level, which Monday’s settlement has slipped just under. The plan of Italy and the Czech Republic to proposes changes on the EU ETS on the October 15-16 leader summit may certainly affect this movement as a call for more flexibility and a delay to the EU ETS may be expected from their agendas.